Bitcoin’s Recent Weakness – Another Opportunity Missed
Fig. 1 • Yuan tankers sail the Strait of Hormuz while Bitcoin watches from shore.
After a heady start to 2025, Bitcoin turned sharply as the market turned risk off amid economic turmoil and geopolitical unease. Precious metals dominated as the markets preferred method for inflation hedged safety. It may change one day, but for today, bitcoin remains primarily a speculative asset. The broken narrative of bitcoin as an inflation fighting store of value has taken a major bullish talking point away from the pro-bitcoin community. Despite a massive 45% decline from last year’s all-time highs, there may be additional problems brewing for the world’s flagship digital currency.
The most recent disappointment, downplayed though it may be by those holding bags of bitcoin, happened last week in the US Iran conflict. Eager to avoid sanctions and economically penalize the United States, Iran announced a plan to allow certain vessels safe passage through the strait of Hormuz, provided that they purchase their cargo in Chinese yuan rather than dollars. Iran, a long proponent of de-dollarization of the oil trade, has also been a long standing fan of bitcoin and was well documented to be mining Bitcoin at the state level. The stage was set. Iran was familiar with bitcoin and the outbreak of the war with the United States gave it the opportunity to officially and dramatically move its oil sales off of the US dollarBut, instead of Bitcoin, Iran chose the yuan. It turns out that nations fleeing dollar hegemony want political alliances and bilateral leverage, not decentralized neutrality. Add “global transaction currency” to the list of increasingly less likely titles for bitcoin, at least in 2026…
Despite these setbacks, Bitcoin is far from dead. It continues to grow in its usefulness and adoption worldwide. Its price, however, is highly subject to global liquidity and right now (and for the foreseeable future) investors are hoarding cash. Until we get resolution on the wars and clarity from the midterms, we are unlikely to see meaningful moves higher for bitcoin. That probably means the fall. We believe that bitcoin will recover late in 2026 and will likely end the year around $100K – not a bad return from here ($66K) but there WILL BE better performing crypto assets that should be considered.
Broader Crypto Market – Looks Better than Bitcoin
Despite the headline weakness, three important and significant structural pillars have quietly built a foundation underneath the broader crypto market. At Sarson Funds we believe that the strong fundamentals and accelerating momentum we see in each of these structural pillars will likely prevent further meaningful downside for the markets as a whole and should be the current focus for investment dollars allocated to crypto. These legs — Decentralized AI, DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure), and Real-World Asset Tokenization (RWAs) — are not speculative narratives. They are disruptors. They are generating revenue, attracting institutional capital, and building infrastructure that will outlast this cycle. Below we discuss each in detail.
Crypto’s Three-Legged Stool Provides Adequate Market Support
Fig. 2 • Crypto’s Three-Legged Stool bears the weight of geopolitical uncertainty.
Leg One: Decentralized AI Compute/Sovereign AI
AI infrastructure is the largest capex cycle in history. Hyperscalers are on pace to spend $700B on data centers in 2026, while total AI infrastructure is projected to grow at a 24% CAGR to $465B by 2033. Decentralized compute is the only credible alternative.
Yet HNT still trades closer to memecoin valuations than infrastructure valuations. That disconnect will not persist indefinitely.
Leg Three: Tokenization — Institutional Adoption Is Here
This is no longer theoretical, tokenized Real World Assets (RWAs) are so real it’s even in their name. Nearly all financial and capital assets can be tokenized, and many will be. There are arguments being made that the market value of RWAs could exceed $200 Trillion value.
Next are deposits, equities, funds, and real estate. Capital is moving on-chain – this is a long term boon for all web3 and crypto projects. Money available on-chain is the key missing ingredient currently for higher prices on web3 companies. And in my opinion is THE reason that on-chain AI companies are as cheap as they are when compared to similar AI companies in the public or private markets. In the very near future, massive quantities of capital will suddenly find itself “on-chain” as it exits RWA investments or by virtue of having their deposits “tokenized” by their financial institutions. They will then have overcome the largest locker allowing them to be able to take advantage of this price disparity to their benefit – and to ours…
FDIC-insured banks can now apply to issue dollar-backed tokens
Fanie and Freddie will accept bitcoin as collateral for new mortgage loans.
Momentum is also building around the CLARITY Act. Negotiators are reportedly “very close” to resolving the remaining issues, with markup targeted for April. Policy is no longer the blocker. It is becoming an accelerant – and even if the Democrats win the midterms, the laws are on the books and Wall Street has already chosen sides. The market will realize that blockchain solutions are here to stay as the future of global financial architecture.
The Stool Holds
Fig. 3 • Hold.
The three legs are not price-dependent. AI demand doesn’t disappear because Bitcoin is at $68,000, Helium’s subscribers don’t cancel because the Fear & Greed Index is low. Canton doesn’t stop processing $280 billion a day because politicians are running attack ads. The fundamentals are building while the market is distracted. That’s how the best setups form.
The stool is solid, and for these sectors, we believe that February’s bottom was THE bottom. Yes, bitcoin may (probably will) go lower still, but that doesn’t mean you will necessarily get a better bite at owning companies in these leading sectors. Astute investors have noticed the solid fundamentals and explosive growth rates in these sectors and have been stepping over the last 7 weeks to buy on weakness. I’m not saying it too loud, at Sarson Funds we believe that in 2026 we will (finally) see a decoupling between bitcoin and these major market sectors. Our industry is finally maturing, and not a minute too soon. Don’t sleep on these low prices. If you can allocate additional capital into these sectors, you absolutely should. At Sarson Funds we specifically recommend (in order of less aggressive to more aggressive): 1. Crypto and Income Strategy (AX Momentum, LP) (lots of RWA and decentralized compute) 2. Small Coin Strategy (Fifth Khagan, LP) (lots of AI, RWA and DePIN) or our most concentrated strategy 3. Decentralized AI Strategy (blockchain-AI and decentralized compute).
Ignore the headlines and look at the prices. Buying low is a lonely feeling, but that is where the best returns are made.
P.S. Do you want to try out private/sovereign AI? It is currently being offered for free by our friends at Manifest, Render and Morpheus.
Go to https://agent1.manifest.network or click below to sign up. An email address is all that’s required.
Disclosures: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. It provides general information on cryptocurrency without accounting for individual circumstances. Sarson Funds, Inc. does not offer legal, tax, or accounting advice. Readers should consult qualified professionals before making any financial decisions. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and carry significant risk, including potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Sarson Funds, Inc. By using this information, you agree that Sarson Funds, Inc. is not liable for any losses or damages resulting from its use.
Access research
Crypto’s Unappreciated Three-Legged Stool
Bitcoin’s Recent Weakness – Another Opportunity Missed
After a heady start to 2025, Bitcoin turned sharply as the market turned risk off amid economic turmoil and geopolitical unease. Precious metals dominated as the markets preferred method for inflation hedged safety. It may change one day, but for today, bitcoin remains primarily a speculative asset. The broken narrative of bitcoin as an inflation fighting store of value has taken a major bullish talking point away from the pro-bitcoin community. Despite a massive 45% decline from last year’s all-time highs, there may be additional problems brewing for the world’s flagship digital currency.
The most recent disappointment, downplayed though it may be by those holding bags of bitcoin, happened last week in the US Iran conflict. Eager to avoid sanctions and economically penalize the United States, Iran announced a plan to allow certain vessels safe passage through the strait of Hormuz, provided that they purchase their cargo in Chinese yuan rather than dollars. Iran, a long proponent of de-dollarization of the oil trade, has also been a long standing fan of bitcoin and was well documented to be mining Bitcoin at the state level. The stage was set. Iran was familiar with bitcoin and the outbreak of the war with the United States gave it the opportunity to officially and dramatically move its oil sales off of the US dollarBut, instead of Bitcoin, Iran chose the yuan. It turns out that nations fleeing dollar hegemony want political alliances and bilateral leverage, not decentralized neutrality. Add “global transaction currency” to the list of increasingly less likely titles for bitcoin, at least in 2026…
Despite these setbacks, Bitcoin is far from dead. It continues to grow in its usefulness and adoption worldwide. Its price, however, is highly subject to global liquidity and right now (and for the foreseeable future) investors are hoarding cash. Until we get resolution on the wars and clarity from the midterms, we are unlikely to see meaningful moves higher for bitcoin. That probably means the fall. We believe that bitcoin will recover late in 2026 and will likely end the year around $100K – not a bad return from here ($66K) but there WILL BE better performing crypto assets that should be considered.
Broader Crypto Market – Looks Better than Bitcoin
Despite the headline weakness, three important and significant structural pillars have quietly built a foundation underneath the broader crypto market. At Sarson Funds we believe that the strong fundamentals and accelerating momentum we see in each of these structural pillars will likely prevent further meaningful downside for the markets as a whole and should be the current focus for investment dollars allocated to crypto. These legs — Decentralized AI, DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure), and Real-World Asset Tokenization (RWAs) — are not speculative narratives. They are disruptors. They are generating revenue, attracting institutional capital, and building infrastructure that will outlast this cycle. Below we discuss each in detail.
Crypto’s Three-Legged Stool Provides Adequate Market Support
Leg One: Decentralized AI Compute/Sovereign AI
AI infrastructure is the largest capex cycle in history. Hyperscalers are on pace to spend $700B on data centers in 2026, while total AI infrastructure is projected to grow at a 24% CAGR to $465B by 2033. Decentralized compute is the only credible alternative.
Proof points are emerging quickly:
Meanwhile, NVIDIA generated $35.6B in data center revenue in a single quarter, which exceeds the combined market cap of the decentralized AI token complex.
Even modest share capture implies significant upside. The valuation gap is the opportunity.
Leg Two: DePIN — Revenue, Not Narrative
DePIN has crossed from concept to cash flow.
These are usage-backed networks. Demand is real, not just speculative.
Helium remains the clearest example:
Yet HNT still trades closer to memecoin valuations than infrastructure valuations. That disconnect will not persist indefinitely.
Leg Three: Tokenization — Institutional Adoption Is Here
This is no longer theoretical, tokenized Real World Assets (RWAs) are so real it’s even in their name. Nearly all financial and capital assets can be tokenized, and many will be. There are arguments being made that the market value of RWAs could exceed $200 Trillion value.
The Canton Network, backed by JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas, and DTCC, supports more than $6T in tokenized assets across 600+ institutions. Broadridge alone processes $280B daily in tokenized Treasury repos on Canton rails.
For context, public DeFi peaked near $180B. Canton exceeds that scale monthly through a single institutional use case.
Adoption is accelerating:
Next are deposits, equities, funds, and real estate. Capital is moving on-chain – this is a long term boon for all web3 and crypto projects. Money available on-chain is the key missing ingredient currently for higher prices on web3 companies. And in my opinion is THE reason that on-chain AI companies are as cheap as they are when compared to similar AI companies in the public or private markets. In the very near future, massive quantities of capital will suddenly find itself “on-chain” as it exits RWA investments or by virtue of having their deposits “tokenized” by their financial institutions. They will then have overcome the largest locker allowing them to be able to take advantage of this price disparity to their benefit – and to ours…
Regulation: From Headwind to Catalyst
The GENIUS Act, signed in July 2025, established the first federal stablecoin framework in the United States. Since then:
Momentum is also building around the CLARITY Act. Negotiators are reportedly “very close” to resolving the remaining issues, with markup targeted for April. Policy is no longer the blocker. It is becoming an accelerant – and even if the Democrats win the midterms, the laws are on the books and Wall Street has already chosen sides. The market will realize that blockchain solutions are here to stay as the future of global financial architecture.
The Stool Holds
The three legs are not price-dependent. AI demand doesn’t disappear because Bitcoin is at $68,000, Helium’s subscribers don’t cancel because the Fear & Greed Index is low. Canton doesn’t stop processing $280 billion a day because politicians are running attack ads. The fundamentals are building while the market is distracted. That’s how the best setups form.
The stool is solid, and for these sectors, we believe that February’s bottom was THE bottom. Yes, bitcoin may (probably will) go lower still, but that doesn’t mean you will necessarily get a better bite at owning companies in these leading sectors. Astute investors have noticed the solid fundamentals and explosive growth rates in these sectors and have been stepping over the last 7 weeks to buy on weakness. I’m not saying it too loud, at Sarson Funds we believe that in 2026 we will (finally) see a decoupling between bitcoin and these major market sectors. Our industry is finally maturing, and not a minute too soon. Don’t sleep on these low prices. If you can allocate additional capital into these sectors, you absolutely should. At Sarson Funds we specifically recommend (in order of less aggressive to more aggressive): 1. Crypto and Income Strategy (AX Momentum, LP) (lots of RWA and decentralized compute) 2. Small Coin Strategy (Fifth Khagan, LP) (lots of AI, RWA and DePIN) or our most concentrated strategy 3. Decentralized AI Strategy (blockchain-AI and decentralized compute).
Ignore the headlines and look at the prices. Buying low is a lonely feeling, but that is where the best returns are made.
P.S. Do you want to try out private/sovereign AI? It is currently being offered for free by our friends at Manifest, Render and Morpheus.
Go to https://agent1.manifest.network or click below to sign up. An email address is all that’s required.
Disclosures: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. It provides general information on cryptocurrency without accounting for individual circumstances. Sarson Funds, Inc. does not offer legal, tax, or accounting advice. Readers should consult qualified professionals before making any financial decisions. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and carry significant risk, including potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Sarson Funds, Inc. By using this information, you agree that Sarson Funds, Inc. is not liable for any losses or damages resulting from its use.
Share:
Follow Sarson Funds
More Articles & Research
Crypto’s Unappreciated Three-Legged Stool
Quantum Risk: Where We Stand Today
New Blueprint for American Digital Assets
Crypto’s Spring Thaw
Subscribe To Our Weekly Newsletter
More From Sarson Funds
Related Posts
Crypto’s Unappreciated Three-Legged Stool
Bitcoin’s Recent Weakness – Another Opportunity Missed After a heady start to 2025, Bitcoin turned sharply as the market turned
Quantum Risk: Where We Stand Today
A Shift From Theory to Timeline Quantum risk is no longer a distant theory. It is an active technology and
New Blueprint for American Digital Assets
For nearly a decade, building crypto platforms in the United States meant navigating a bitter jurisdictional rivalry between regulators. The
Crypto’s Spring Thaw
One Month Later – We Made it When I wrote to you on February 5th, I called it “Crypto’s Winter
Search for a Topic
Categories